About Prediction Markets
StrategyOne’s predictive markets offering is an ideal solution and a powerful managerial tool, providing your organization with the best and most reliable predictions regarding future risks and issues.
Through this methodology, we are able to obtain:
- predicted outcomes of an event as generated by participant forecasts,
- the rationale as to why an audience made a given prediction, and
- an understanding of who is the best predictor in any domain.
By constantly soliciting opinions from a diverse group of participants, we are able to provide our clients with actionable information to move forward. Prediction markets are a credible and convincing platform to determine the magnitude of a problem without relying on a single individual’s opinion.
Prediction Market Solutions
Predictive market research lends itself particularly to four (4) organizational needs:
Client Needs |
Key Benefit of Prediction Markets |
| Project risk management | Avoid cost and schedule overruns on large, capital and resource intensive projects. |
| Portfolio management | Reduce the number of failed or at-risk projects/products in your portfolio. |
| Strategic planning and forecasting | Meet key performance metrics and strategic goals through awareness and input from all areas of the organization. |
| User testing | Select participants for testing usability of a product or website as opposed to relying solely on demographic data. |
Credibility of the Marketplace
Differentiated from survey research, prediction markets interpret market prices as probability figures; this makes no individual response right or wrong, but rather more probable to occur or not occur. Below is a graph created by our service support partner Inkling, which demonstrates the accuracy of the marketplace forecast compared to the actual outcome. Using 7,000 markets, Inkling determined if the stock price actually reflected the probabilities forecasted during prediction markets.
Highlighting the accuracy of the “wisdom of the crowd,” it is evident that the stock prices in the prediction markets do closely represent probabilities.
Benefits
- Make complex business decisions with greater confidence
- Identify emerging trends
- Uncover and act upon new business opportunities and uncover and mitigate risks
- Develop and evaluate courses of action
Supporting our solutions is Inkling Markets, our prediction market platform.
To learn more about predictive markets, please contact us at Information@StrategyOne.net.
